Our local real estate market experts, Market Watch LLC, have just released their December 2023 Desert Housing Report. Some of the highlights:
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER SALES RECOVERY: In looking at the past year, in January 2023 Coachella Valley home sales were running at 34.7% below normal (with the norm calculated over the years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019). Coachella Valley home sales improved over the first half of 2023 and in May were 21.4% below normal. Home sales then declined over the second part of the year and in December, Coachella Valley home sales were 31.4% below normal. Market Watch felt that home sales were depressed because of the lack of supply at affordable price points due to high interest rates. With lower mortgage rates, Market Watch expected home sales to begin to increase soon.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER DETACHED HOME MEDIAN PRICE: The median price of a detached home in the Coachella Valley ended the year at $659,000 (up 3.8% from $635,000 in November and up 3% from $640,000 in December 2022). Market Watch stated that home prices often begin to rise in December and that they feel that this seasonal pattern will continue in 2024. Market Watch cautioned that with inventory rising and home sales remaining low, supply and demand is beginning to slowly favor buyers.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER ATTACHED HOME MEDIAN PRICE: The median price of an attached home in the Coachella Valley ended the year at $460,000 (up 0.7 % from $457,000 in November and up 3.4% from $445,000 in December 2022). Market Watch felt that attached home median prices seemed to be following the normal seasonal pattern therefore they felt that attached home median prices should continue to increase over the next three or four months.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER TWELVE MONTH CHANGE IN THE PRICE OF THE AVERAGE SIZE HOME BY CITY: There was a wide range in year-over-year changes in detached home prices, ranging from an increase of 7.8% in the price for the average size 2,175 sq ft detached home in Palm Springs to a decrease of 10.4% in the price for the average size 2,500 sq ft detached home in Bermuda Dunes. Similarly, there was a wide range in year-over-year changes in attached home prices, ranging from an increase of 18.8% for the 1,950 sq ft average size home in Indian Wells to a decrease of 8.9% for the 750 sq ft average size attached home in Desert Hot Springs. Year-over-year, the price of the average size attached home increased in Indian Wells, Indio, Rancho Mirage, Cathedral City, Palm Springs and Palm Desert.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER MONTHLY HOME SALES – 3 MONTH TRAILING AVERAGE:. Market Watch expressed their opinion that Coachella Valley home sales seem to have stabilized (albeit at a lower level than in the past). The three-month average of Coachella Valley detached and attached home sales was 490 homes per month in December (up 22 homes per month or 4.7% from 468 homes per month in December 2022). Market Watch noted that this is the first increase in average monthly home sales in over two years. However, Market Watch cautioned that average home sales in December were still 32.5% below historic norms.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER MONTHLY HOME SALES – 12 MONTH TRAILING AVERAGE: The 12-month average of Coachella Valley December home sales was 606 total home sales per month (down 17% from 728 home sales in December 2022). Market Watch pointed out that flattening in long-term average monthly home sales, shows the worst of the decline in long term average monthly home sales may be over. However, Market Watch felt that home sales will only recover once mortgage rates come down to 5.5% from their current high level.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER HOME SALES BY CITY: December home sales increased year-over-year in every Coachella Valley city, other than Cathedral City, Desert Hot Springs and Indian Wells. The largest percentage increase in December monthly home sales was in Coachella, where monthly homes sales were up 44% year-over-year, followed by Rancho Mirage where December monthly home sales were up 20% year-over-year, then La Quinta where December monthly home sales were up 13% year-over-year.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER HOME SALES BY PRICE RANGE: Market Watch felt that this data showed that December monthly home sales in the Coachella Valley were generally about the same as a year ago in all price ranges. Further, they felt that this showed that the Coachella Valley housing market was not experiencing an imbalance in any price range and that the high end of the market was performing about the same as the low end of the market. December sales of homes priced over one million dollars were up 21.5% year-over-year. Market Watch pointed out that this increase in homes sales was due to the fact that with the increase in home prices over the last few years, more homes are now valued over one million dollars.
COACHELLA VALLEY JANUARY 1ST HOME SALE INVENTORY: The Coachella Valley home sale inventory was 2,093 homes on January 1st (down 167 homes from 2,260 homes on December 1st and up 182 homes from 1,911 homes on January 1st, 2023). Market Watch explained that for technical reasons, a year end decline in home sale inventory like this was common. While the January 1st home sale inventory was near the highest levels of the last four years, Market Watch noted that it was still 1,000 homes less than what’s considered normal for this time of year. Market Watch hoped that the seasonal increase in home sale inventory will continue for a few more months, possibly reaching 2,500 homes.
COACHELLA VALLEY JANUARY 1st MONTHS OF SALES RATIO: On January 1 st, the Coachella Valley’s “months of sales” ratio was 3.5 months (0.9 months higher than on January 1st, 2023). Market Watch felt that this fundamental months of sale ratio (which measures supply and demand), was now back to a more normal level. The noted that lower inventory is offset by lower sales, which has been keeping supply and demand in balance so that there was no overbalancing force pushing home prices either higher or lower.
COACHELLA VALLEY JANUARY 1st MONTHS OF SALES RATIOS BY PRICE RANGE: The months of sales ratios by price range were all higher than on January 1st, 2023 in every price range. In addition, Market Watch noted the normal pattern of higher months of sales ratios for higher priced homes. The ratio of homes priced over a million dollars was 4.9 months, which Market Warch noted was historically less than normal.
COACHELLA VALLEY JANUARY 1st MONTHS OF SALES RATIOS BY CITY: The January 1st months of sales ratios were higher than on January 1st, 2023 in every Coachella Valley city. In addition, the months of sale ratios were over three months in every Coachella Valley city other than Coachella and Indio. Market Watch noted that a months of sales ratio of three to four months was considered normal and that the even distribution of months of sales ratios implies that supply and demand is pretty much balanced throughout the region.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER DAYS IN THE MARKET: The median selling time in the Coachella Valley was 35 days in December (compared to 36 days in both November and December 2022). Market Watch believes that the median selling time in the Coachella Valley will remain around current levels for at least the next six months.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER DAYS IN THE MARKET BY CITY: In December, Coachella continued to have the shortest median selling time for detached homes at 21 days, followed by Desert Hot Springs at 28 days and Indian Wells at 30 days. In December, Indio had the shortest average selling time for attached homes at 21 days, followed by Desert Hot Springs at 27 days and Palm Springs at 29 days.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER PERCENTAGE OF HOMES SELLING ABOVE LIST: In December, 15.1% of home sales in the Coachella Valley were above list price (compared to 15.8% in December 2022). Market Watch expects the percentage of homes selling at a premium to remain around 16%, which is one out of every six sales.
COACHELLA VALLEY DECEMBER AVERAGE PRICE DISCOUNTS BY CITY: In December, every Coachella Valley city had an average selling discount for detached homes, ranging from -1.1% in Coachella to -5.3% in Bermuda Dunes. In December, average selling discounts for attached homes ranged from -1.1% in Cathedral City to -4.4% in Bermuda Dunes.
THE BRIGGS GROUP | COLDWELL BANKER | Laurie Briggs - DRE# 01896117 | Tim Briggs – DRE# 01898254 | Coldwell Banker Realty – DRE# 00616212