Our local real estate market experts, Market Watch LLC, have just released their October 2023 Desert Housing Report. Some highlights:
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER HOME SALES RECOVERY: This chart shows where current home sales are as a percent of historic norms over the years 2016 through 2019. For example, at the height of the pandemic in January of 2021, sales were 59.5% above the norm. Sales fell to 34.7% below normal by January of 2023 but then began to improve until May. Coachella Valley home sales in October were running 30.8% below the historic norms. Market Watch stated that this is almost entirely due to higher interest rates and the digesting of the excess housing demand created by low interest rates during the Covid pandemic.
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER DETACHED HOME MEDIAN PRICE: The median price of a detached home in the Coachella Valley ended October at $642,450 (down 2.7% from $660,000 in October 2022). Market Watch felt that the decline in the detached home median price over the last five months was primarily seasonal. They went on to state that October may be the start of the seasonal pattern where detached home median prices begin to rise in October and continue to increase until April. However, with home inventory rising and home sales remaining low, they felt that supply and demand was beginning to slowly favor buyers.
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER ATTACHED HOME MEDIAN PRICE: The median price of an attached home in the Coachella Valley at the end of October was $435,000 (unchanged from September but down 4.4% from $455,000 in October 2022). Market Watch noted that if the normal seasonal pattern were to continue, attached home median prices should increase moving into the new year.
COACHELLA VALLEY 12 MONTH CHANGE IN THE PRICE OF THE AVERAGE SIZE HOME BY CITY: In October, year over year price changes for detached homes ranged from an increase of 11% for the 2,500 sq ft average size home in Bermuda Dunes to a decline of 9.3% for the average size 1,700 sq ft home in Coachella. In October, the price of the average size attached home increased in 6 Coachella Valley cities, ranging from an increase of 13.9% for the 1,950 sq ft average size attached home in Indian Wells to an increase of 1.3% for the 1,050 sq ft average size attached home in Indio. The price of the average size home decreased in 3 Coachella Valley cities, ranging from a decrease of 4.6% for the 1,600 sq ft average size attached home in Palm Desert to a decrease of 14.8% for the 750 sq ft average size attached home in Desert Hot Springs.
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER MONTHLY HOME SALES (3-MONTH TRAILING AVERAGE): Monthly home sales continued to decline in the Coachella Valley in October. The three-month average of home sales was 513 units in October (down 19 home sales or 3.6% from 532 home sales in September and down 53 homes sales or 9.4% from 566 home sales in October 2022). Market Watch noted that because of the seasonal nature of home sales, it's difficult to assess where home sales stand on a historical basis, however the Sales Recovery chart shows that home sales over the last four months are running about 30.8% below normal.
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER MINTHLY HOME SALES (12-MONTH TRAILING AVERAGE): - The 12-month average of home sales, which takes out seasonality from the home sales data, shows total monthly home sales averaging 599 homes per month in October (down 25.3% from 802 average home sales per month in October 2022). Market Watch stated that while long-term average home sales have been flattening out over the last seven months and while they think that the worst is over, they continue to believe that Coachella valley home sales won’t recover until mortgage rates come down to the 5% range from their current level of 7.5%.
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER HOME SALES BY CITY: In October, every Coachella Valley city other than Cathedral City, Coachella, Desert Hot Springs and Rancho Mirage had lower three-month average home sales compared to last year. In Rancho Mirage in October, average home sales were 56 homes per month (up 16.7% from October 2022). The cities with the largest average home sales declines year-over-year in October were Indio and La Quinta, with sales down roughly 20% each year-over-year.
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER HOME SALES BY PRICE RANGE: Market Watch noted that home sales were generally lower in all price ranges but with no distinct pattern (i.e., home sales in some price ranges were higher, some lower and some the same as in October 2022). Market Watch did note that sales of homes priced over one million dollars were about the same as last year.
COACHELLA VALLEY NOVEMBER 1ST TOTAL HOME INVENTORY: On November 1st, Coachella Valley home inventory was 2,110 homes (up 348 units or 19.8% from 1,762 homes on October 1st but only up 62 homes or 3.0% from 2,048 homes on November 1st, 2022). Market Watch noted that while the increase in inventory from October 1st was larger than most increases in October, current home inventory is still about 1,000 homes under what is normal for this time of year. Market Watch expects the seasonal increase in inventory to continue for the next three to four months.
COACHELLA VALLEY NOVEMBER 1ST REGIONAL MONTHS OF SALES RATIO: On November 1st, the Coachella Valley’s months of sales ratio was 3.5 months (up 0.4 months from October 1st and up 0.9 months from November 1st, 2022). Market Watch noted that the months of supply ratio is a fundamental measure of supply and demand and felt that 3.5 months was a level that was somewhat normal. Thay noted that while home inventory is below normal, so are home sales, so the numbers counterbalance one another producing a somewhat normal months of sales ratio.
COACHELLA VALLEY NOVEMBER 1st MONTHS OF SALES RATIO BY PRICE RANGE: Market Watch noted that the months of sales ratio was above year ago levels in every price range. Further, the increase in months of sales ration over last year was about the same in all price brackets, indicating that there were no distortions in supply and demand in any price range.
COACHELLA VALLEY NOVEMBER 1ST MONTHS OF SALES RATIO BY CITY: The months of sales ratio on November 1st was higher that year ago levels in every Coachella Valley city other than Coachella. Market Watch felt that this data indicated that supply and demand were balanced in every Coachella Valley city.
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER REGIONAL DAYS IN THE MARKET: At the end of October, the median number of days in the market in the Coachella Valley was 37 days (one day less than in September and two days more than in October 2022). Market Watch stated that because of growing home inventory, they thought that the median selling time would stay around current levels and possibly rise a little over the next six months.
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER DAYS IN THE MARKET BY CITY FOR DETACHED & ATTACHED HOMES: In October, Coachella continued to have the lowest median selling time for detached homes at 27 days (down from 35 days one year ago), followed by Palm Springs at 32 days (down from 36 days in October 2022) and Cathedral City at 35 days (up from 34 days in October 2022). In October, Desert Hot Springs continued to have the shortest median selling time at for attached homes at 28 days (up from 24 days one year ago), followed by Palm Springs at 33 days (up from 31 days in October 2022) and Indio at 34 days (up from 30 days in October 2022).
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER PERCENTAGE OF HOMES SELLING ABOVE LIST PRICE: In October, 16.5% of sales sold above list price (compared to 21.7% in October 2022). Market Watch expects the percentage of homes selling above list price to remain around current levels moving into fall and winter and as inventory grows.
COACHELLA VALLEY OCTOBER AVERAGE SALES PRICE DISCOUNTS FROM LIST PRICE BY CITY: In October, detached homes on average sold at a discount in every Coachella Valley city, ranging from a selling discount of -0.7% in Coachella (up from 0.0 in October 2022) to -4.1% in Bermuda Dunes (ip from +0.5% in October 2022). Similarly, in October attached homes on average sold for a discount in every Coachella Valley city, ranging from a selling discount of 1.6% in Palm Springs (up from -0.8% in October 2022) to -3.3% in La Quinta (up from -2.9% in October 2022).
The Briggs Group / Coldwell Banker Realty | Laurie Briggs DRE 01896117 | Tim Briggs DRE 01898254 | Coldwell Banker Realty DRE 00616212